← CARDINAL
02 · CONVOY EMERGENCE
Raise crimeRate. Nobody issues an order. Watch what happens.
Initializing...
Parameters
crimeRate0.15
SafeRiskyDangerous
SAFE — no convoy needed
merchants40
feige (avg)0.40
convoy threshold0.30
Live Stats
0Merchants
0Convoys
0Solo (at risk)
Avg Size
Cohesion F
0Attacked
Legend
hMerchant (solo)
[h]Merchant (in convoy)
!Under attack
Waypoint / market
Empty terrain
Tilly (1990) — Coercion, Capital & European States
Convoys emerge from protection logic, not planning. Merchants pay escort costs only when crimeRate exceeds threshold.

Schelling (1966) — Arms and Influence:
The convoy is self-enforcing — nobody needs to invite anyone, because every member raises collective defense, punishing free-riding.

Ibn Battuta (1325–1354): Never traveled alone. Always joined groups at caravanserai stops.